No average treatment effect and low heterogeneity of hormonal contraceptive use on women's well-being [Recommended stage 2 registered report]
No average treatment effect and low heterogeneity of hormonal contraceptive use on women's well-being [Recommended stage 2 registered report]Different women experience hormonal contraceptives differently, reporting side effects on their well-being that range from adverse to beneficial. Research on such causal effects of hormonal contraceptives on psychological outcomes struggles both to identify average causal effects and to capture potential heterogeneity in women’s treatment responses. In this study, we leveraged longitudinal data to improve the separation of causal effects of hormonal contraceptives from other sources of association (e.g., confounding, reverse causality, attrition). In this programmatic registered report (stage 1 protocol: https://osf.io/kj3h2; date of in-principle acceptance: 28/09/2023), we analyzed up to 14 waves of data from up to 5,232 women aged 16 to 50 (24,306 observations) who participated in the German PAIRFAM panel. To deal with confounding and to probe the robustness of findings, we implemented two analysis approaches: adjusted regression analysis and inverse probability of treatment weighting. We found no evidence for average treatment effects of hormonal contraceptives on depressiveness, life satisfaction, or self-esteem. Furthermore, we found relatively low heterogeneity in individual treatment effects on depressiveness, life satisfaction, and self-esteem. Nevertheless, we found initial evidence that interindividual differences were systematically related to individual treatment effects. In particular, women higher in neuroticism tended to experience more beneficial effects on depressiveness and on life satisfaction. Individual treatment effects did not predict women’s decisions about which contraceptive method to use in the long run. These findings contribute to our understanding of the effects of hormonal contraceptives in a naturalistic setting. Public health efforts should avoid overstating risks to well-being since media-driven "pill scares" may ultimately harm individuals, including vulnerable populations.https://www.psych.uni-goettingen.de/de/biopers/publications_department/no-average-treatment-effect-and-low-heterogeneity-of-hormonal-contraceptive-use-on-womens-well-being-recommended-stage-2-registered-reporthttps://www.psych.uni-goettingen.de/@@site-logo/university-of-goettingen-logo.svg
Laura J Botzet, Julia M Rohrer, Lars Penke and Ruben C Arslan
No average treatment effect and low heterogeneity of hormonal contraceptive use on women's well-being [Recommended stage 2 registered report]
Peer-reviewed & recommended by Peer Community In: Registered Reports
Different women experience hormonal contraceptives differently, reporting side effects on their well-being that range from adverse to beneficial. Research on such causal effects of hormonal contraceptives on psychological outcomes struggles both to identify average causal effects and to capture potential heterogeneity in women’s treatment responses. In this study, we leveraged longitudinal data to improve the separation of causal effects of hormonal contraceptives from other sources of association (e.g., confounding, reverse causality, attrition). In this programmatic registered report (stage 1 protocol: https://osf.io/kj3h2; date of in-principle acceptance: 28/09/2023), we analyzed up to 14 waves of data from up to 5,232 women aged 16 to 50 (24,306 observations) who participated in the German PAIRFAM panel. To deal with confounding and to probe the robustness of findings, we implemented two analysis approaches: adjusted regression analysis and inverse probability of treatment weighting. We found no evidence for average treatment effects of hormonal contraceptives on depressiveness, life satisfaction, or self-esteem. Furthermore, we found relatively low heterogeneity in individual treatment effects on depressiveness, life satisfaction, and self-esteem. Nevertheless, we found initial evidence that interindividual differences were systematically related to individual treatment effects. In particular, women higher in neuroticism tended to experience more beneficial effects on depressiveness and on life satisfaction. Individual treatment effects did not predict women’s decisions about which contraceptive method to use in the long run. These findings contribute to our understanding of the effects of hormonal contraceptives in a naturalistic setting. Public health efforts should avoid overstating risks to well-being since media-driven "pill scares" may ultimately harm individuals, including vulnerable populations.
